College Football Game Predictions AND Results (updated when available) for Week 12 of the 2009 Season (Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 21)

College Football Game Predictions AND Results for Week 12 of the 2009 Season
(the game results as they come in are simply appended to the previously posted predictions)

See our current ratings and rankings in the previous post.

Predictions are based primarily on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, November 16, 2009, 10:00 a.m..

The average home field advantage this year according to the Massey Ratings has thus far been 2.66 points, but the actual swing in score from field X to field Y is then twice that amount, i.e. 5.32 points. Moreover Massey covers all football divisions, not just Division I (FBS and FCS), for which Sagarin currently gives a home field advantage of 3.06 relative to a neutral field, or a spread of 6.12 between two home fields, so in some cases we now calculate 6 points for the home field in calculating the spread.

For the season, after eleven weeks, we are thus far 433-173 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 250-278-8 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole.

Wednesday November 18, 2009

Buffalo (3-7) is favored by 3 points at Miami of Ohio (1-10). Our call: Buffalo has been a big disappointment this year and the RedHawks have been awful. Bulls 31-23. Result: Buffalo beat Miami 42-17 Winners & Against the Spread: This week, we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.

Central Michigan (8-2) is favored by 20 points at Ball State (1-9). Our call: Through November 25, 2008 i.e. last season, Ball State was 12-0. The 2009 season shows how important good head coaching can be as the Cardinals are now 1-9. We call it for the Chippewas 44-21. Result: Central Michigan won 35-3 as quarterback Dan LeFevour set an all-time career MAC passing record of 12,000 yards, eclipsing Byron Leftwich, who had 11,903. Winners & Against the Spread: This week, we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 2-0 against the spread.

Thursday November 19, 2009

Colorado (3-7) is the underdog by 18.5 points at Oklahoma State (8-2). (Point spread updated as of November 18, 2009 9:28:37 AM) Our call: At Colorado, Dan Hawkins is in his 4th year and he has made little headway in restoring the Buff's football program to respectability. Cowboys 45-7. Result: Oklahoma State's starting quarterback, Zac Robinson could not play due to an injury, the backup QB Axel Cate went 0 for 9 and 1 interception in the first half, and the Cowboys had to come from 11 points back under third-string QB and former pro baseball pitcher Brandon Weeden to luckily win a close one 31-28. Winners & Against the Spread: This week, we are 3-0 in calling the winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Friday November 20, 2009

Akron (2-8) is the underdog by 13 points at Bowling Green (5-5). Our call: Falcons 30-21. Result:

Eastern Michigan (0-10) is the underdog by 17 points at Toledo (4-6). Our call: Rockets 51-7. Result:

Boise State (10-0) is favored by 24 points at Utah State (3-7). Our call: Broncos 34-7. Onward to an unbeaten season and a gigantic headache for the BCS. Boise State beat Oregon and Oregon sits atop the Pac-10, so how can Oregon get a BCS berth and Boise State not, presuming that Oregon wins its last two games, which it may not. Result:

Saturday November 21, 2009

Louisville (4-6) is the underdog by 11.5 points at South Florida (6-3). Our call: Bulls 40-14. Result:

North Carolina (7-3) is the underdog by 3 points at Boston College (7-3). Our call: Eagles 21-13. The Tar Heels have a strong defense and virtually no offense. Result:

N.C. State (4-6) is the underdog by 17.5 points at Virginia Tech (7-3). Our call: Hokies 38-13. Result:

Maryland (2-8) is the underdog by 17 points at Florida State (5-5). Our call: Seminoles 35-17. Result:

Virginia (3-7) is the underdog by 20 points at Clemson (7-3). Our call: Clemson 35-7. Result:

Duke (5-5) is the underdog by 20 points at Miami of Florida (7-3). Our call: Hurricanes 40-17. Result:

Ohio State (9-2) is favored by 13 points at Michigan (5-6). Our call: The Michigan football program has allegedly not filed the 2008 season logs for athletic hours required by the NCAA and if that is proven to be an NCAA violation in fact, then the stormy Rodriguez tenure as head coach of the Wolverines is surely close to its end. See Matt Hayes at the Sporting News. Michigan is playing so far below its normal level that player motivation issues are surely playing a role. Buckeyes 38-14. Result:

Minnesota (6-5) is the underdog by 13 points at Iowa (9-2). Our call: Iowa lost to Ohio State also because their head coach ducked his head in the sand the last minute of regulation play. Hawkeyes 31-17. Result:

Chattanooga (6-4) at Alabama (10-0). An FCS freebie for the Crimson Tide? This one is off the board. No line. Our call: Crimson Tide 61-3 Result:

Mississippi State (4-6) is the underdog by 11.5 points at Arkansas (6-4). Our call: Razorbacks 40-24. Result:

Florida International (3-7) is the underdog by 43 points at Florida (10-0). Our call: YPPSYS gives Florida the nod by 7.2 rating points x 9 scoreboard points per rating point = 64.8 points. But will Meyer play his best players very much? that is the question. We give the nod to Florida 68-3, but that will surely be inflated. Result:

Oklahoma (6-4) is favored by 4 points at Texas Tech (6-4). Our call: Nebraska beat this Oklahoma team and still was not rated in the top 25 in the country in the subsequent polls. The polls this year are a conference-partisan scandal. The Sooners, it is true, have lost their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and have lost 4 games - by 1 point to ranked BYU, by 1 point to ranked Miami of Florida, by 3 points to ranked Texas, and by 7 points to unranked Nebraska. The polls are a disgrace. Florida and Alabama are 1 and 2 in scoring defense this year. Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas are 3, 4 and 5. That neither Nebraska or Oklahoma were rated in the top 25 after their game shows how East and South biased the polls are. Terrible, terrible. As for this game, if Steven Sheffield were at quarterback, we would go with the Raiders. However, since he is injured, we call it for the Sooners by 44-24. Result:

Kansas (5-5) is the underdog by 28 points at Texas (10-0). Our call: Without taking the home field advantage into account YPPSYS stats would make Texas a 26-point favorite and beyond the spread with that home field advantage. We just can't see Texas as being that good offensively and Kansas that bad, in spite of five straight losses. We call it for Texas by 10 points, 31-21. Result:

Kent State (5-5) is the underdog by 13 points at Temple (8-2). Our call: Al Golden is the golden boy at Temple this season and with a switch at starting quarterback to the more mobile Chester Stewart last week, the defense can no longer concentrate only on freshman tailback Bernard Pierce, who is third in the nation rushing. We call it 31-17 for the Owls. Result:

Memphis (2-8) is the underdog by 24 points at Houston (8-2). Our call: Houston 44-14. Result:

Iowa State (6-5) is the underdog by 9.5 points at Missouri (6-4). Our call: Missouri 35-14 Result:

Oregon (8-2) is favored by 4 points at Arizona (6-3). Our call: YPPSYS stats make Oregon about a one touchdown favorite when the home field advantage is included. Our prediction here, however, is in favor of Arizona, 36-35, because this would open the possibility of Stanford - rightly - representing the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl. If Arizona beats Oregon, Oregon beats Oregon State, Arizona State or USC beats Arizona and if Stanford wins its last remaining Pac 10 game against Cal, the Cardinal is IN in Pasadena. Result:

TCU (10-0) is favored by 28 points at Wyoming (5-5). Our call: TCU 43-3 Result:

Northern Illinois (7-3) is favored by 1 point at Ohio (7-3). Our call: YPPSYS ranks Ohio and Northern Illinois 63rd and 64th in its Division I-A FBS rankings of 120 teams. The only advantage here is the home field advantage or the Bobcats. We call it 33-27 for Ohio. Result:

Tulane (3-7) is the underdog by 20 points at UCF (6-4). Our call: Central Florida 32-7. Result:

Connecticut (4-5) is the underdog by 7.5 points at Notre Dame (6-4). Our call: Both teams have subpar defenses so that the score is likely to be high. Without the home field advantage, YPPSYS makes the Fighting Irish a 2 point favorite, but we just doubt that the Notre Dame defense can do the job. We call it for the Huskies 31-28. Result:

Oregon State (7-3) is favored by 29 points at Washington State (1-9). Our call: The trouble in Washington is that many the good players are at top-ranked Division II Central Washington. We call it for the Beavers 42-7 Result:

UAB (5-5) is the underdog by 12.5 points at East Carolina (5-4). (Point spread updated as of November 18, 2009 9:28:37 AM.) Our call: YPPSYS ranks East Carolina at 76th and UAB at 77th among the top 120 Division I-A FBS teams. East Carolina thus has only the home field advantage. We call it 24-17 for the Pirates Result:

Purdue (4-7) is favored by 2.5 points at Indiana (4-7). Our call: Purdue 31-27 Result:

Wisconsin (8-2) is favored by 4 points at Northwestern (7-4). Our call: Wisconsin 30-17 Result:

UTEP (3-7) is favored by 8 points at Rice (1-9). Our call: UTEP 48-33 Result:

Air Force (7-4) is the underdog by 7.5 points at BYU (8-2). Our call: BYU 44-24 Result:

Rutgers (7-2) is favored by 10 points at Syracuse (3-7). Our call: Rutgers 21-9 Result:

Penn State (9-2) is favored by 3.5 points at Michigan State (6-5). Our call: Penn State 21-17 Result:

LSU (8-2) is the underdog by 3 points at Mississippi (7-3). Our call: YPPSYS ranks Mississippi 19th and LSU 20th. We call it for the Rebels due to the home field advantage 27-21 Result:

Baylor (4-6) is the underdog by 10 points at Texas A&M (5-5). Our call: Without the home field advantage, our stats make Baylor 4 points better. We call it for Texas A&M 38-37 Result:

San Diego State (4-6) is the underdog by 16.5 points at Utah (8-2). Our call: Utah 47-21 Result:

Arizona State (4-6) is the underdog by 6 points at UCLA (5-5). Our call: By YPPSYS stats and including the home field advantage, this game is a toss-up. We call it for UCLA 27-26 Result:

Army (4-6) is the underdog by 3 points at North Texas (2-8). Our call: YPPSYS ranks Army 100th and North Texas 103rd. The home field advantage should give the game to the Mean Green. We call it 27-20 for North Texas Result:

Florida Atlantic (3-6) is the underdog by 16.5 points at Troy (7-3). Our call: We call it for Troy 45-14 Result:

SMU (6-4) is the underdog by 5 points at Marshall (5-5). Our call: What a head coaching job by June Jones at SMU over the last two football seasons, as the Mustangs are 6-4 (5-1 in Conference USA) this year and lead the West Division, after going 1-11 each of the last two seasons, not going to a bowl game since 1984 and not having a winning season since 1997. With games against Marshall and Tulane remaining, SMU looks ready for a bowl game and ready for a winning season this year. SMU 31-27 Result:

Arkansas State (2-7) is the underdog by 10.5 points at Middle Tennessee State (7-3). Our call: 34-14 for the Blue Raiders Result:

Louisiana Tech (3-7) is the underdog by 11 points at Fresno State (6-4). Our call: Fresno State 36-17 Result:

Colorado State (3-7) is favored by 3.5 points at New Mexico (0-10). Our call: The Rams by 31-20 Result:

Tulsa (4-5) is the underdog by 8.5 points at Southern Miss (6-4). (Point spread updated as of November 18, 2009 9:28:37 AM.) Our call: The Golden Hurricane misses Gus Malzahn this year. We call it for Southern Miss 33-24 Result:

LA Monroe (6-4) is seen as even at LA Lafayette (5-5). Our call: ULM over ULL 30-21 Result:

Vanderbilt (2-9) is the underdog by 19 points at Tennessee (5-5). Our call: 42-14 for the Vols Result:

California (7-3) is the underdog by 8 points at Stanford (7-3). Our call: This game has traditionally been the Big Game in the Battle for the Stanford Axe, which Cal won last year, so that Stanford is poised to regain it this year. YPPSYS ranks Stanford 24th and Cal 28th. If Arizona beats Oregon, Oregon beats Oregon State, Arizona State or USC beats Arizona and if Stanford wins its last remaining Pac 10 game against Cal, the Cardinal is IN in Pasadena. Could it happen? It could. It could. We call it for the Cardinal 41-27 Result:

Kansas State (6-5) is the underdog by 13 points at Nebraska (7-3). Our call: The Huskers to win by 24-0. Consider this possible scenario. The Huskers beat Kansas State and - as one of the few defenses in the country capable of doing so - then beat Texas in the Big 12 championship game. Who then - out of three potentially undefeated teams - will "rightly" appear in the BCS national championship game versus the SEC champion? Result:

Kentucky (6-4) is the underdog by 7.5 points at Georgia (6-4). Our call: Georgia 34-14 Result:

Hawaii (4-6) is favored by 3 points at San Jose State (1-8). Our call: Hawaii 38-14 Result:

Nevada (7-3) is favored by 31 points at New Mexico State (3-7. Our call: Nevada 48-14 Result:

Lawyers at the Forefront of BCS : Fox Sports on MSN Reports that BCS Presidential Group Expands from 8 to 12 : Chair is Former Law Dean Perlman

As reported by FOX Sports at
CFB - - FOX Sports on MSN
the BCS presidential group - which manages BCS -
has expanded from 8 to 12.

The group is chaired by University of Nebraska-Lincoln Chancellor Harvey Perlman,
who was previously dean of the Nebraska College of Law.

YPPSYS Ratings of Top 12 NCAA Division III 2009 Pre-Playoff Teams by NAYPPA

CORRECTED! (incorrect version inadvertently posted earlier)

YPPSYS Ratings of Top 12 NCAA Division III 2009 Pre-Playoff Teams by NAYPPA
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)

To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.

The average yards per play component will be similar in NCAA Division III football to NCAA Division I. In NCAA Division I-A FBS college football the yards per play stats have been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of them - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.

Schedule difficulty beyond Division I-A FBS does not show a linear decrease - it is more than that. Massey Ratings rank Sioux Falls 92nd in the country of all football teams, Wisconsin Whitewater 96th and Mount Union 146th. We have previously given Sioux Falls a rating of -1.1 in the YPPSYS system. Sioux Falls, according to Massey Ratings played the 392nd most difficult schedule, while Whitewater played the 350th most difficult schedule. Normally, 2/100ths of that amount would have to subtracted from the NAYPPA to get a rating which fits into the Division I-A FBS rankings. But that would be too much in view of the fact that Sioux Falls beat FCS North Dakota 28-13 as compared to e.g. Division I-A Texas Tech which beat North Dakota 38-13. Hence, instead of 1/100 of schedule difficulty, we here deduct 1.5/100 from the NAYPPA.

Polls Rank	After 11th Week	NAYPPA		YPP OFF		YPP DEF		Schedule		W-L		Rating
1	Mount Union	4.0		7.2		3.2		404		10-0		-2.0
2	WI-Whiteawater	3.5		7.4		3.9		350		10-0		-1.7
3	Wesley College	2.6		6.4		3.8		416		10-0		-3.6
4	St. Johns Univ.	0.7		4.8		4.1		351		10-0		-4.3
5	Linfield	2.1		6.5		4.4		456		9-0		-4.7
6	Central College	1.8		6.2		5.0		469		10-0		-5.3
7	Mary Hardin-Baylor	3.8		6.9		3.1		511		9-1		-3.9
8	Monmouth College	2.8		6.3		3.7		660		10-0		-7.1
9	Case Western Reserve	2.6		6.8		4.2		653		10-0		-7.1
10	St. Thomas	2.5		6.6		4.1		396		9-1		-3.4
11	Thomas More	2.0		5.8		3.8		513		10-0		-5.7
12	Wittenberg	3.7		6.6		2.9		616		10-0		-5.5

The above figures show in exemplary fashion for the net yards per play and schedule difficulty analysis system why Mount Union and Whitewater played in the Division III final last year as the best teams in that division and why many of the teams in the playoffs have no chance at all against teams that are much stronger than they are. It also shows how flawed the Division III rankings are. Obviously, St. Thomas and Mary Hardin-Baylor both belong in the top 5.

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 games

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.

The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.

Rank	After 11th Week	NAYPPA		YPP OFF		YPP DEF		Schedule		W-L		Rating
1	Florida	2.6		6.5		3.9		17		10-0		2.4
2	Alabama	2.3		6.2		3.9		6		10-0		2.2
3	Cincinnati	2.7		7.4		4.7		47		10-0		2.2
4	TCU	2.4		6.5		4.1		37		10-0		2.0
5	Texas	2.2		5.7		3.5		31		10-0		1.9
6	Oregon	1.8		6.1		4.3		7		8-2		1.3
7	Pittsburgh	1.7		6.6		4.9		50		9-1		1.0
8	Boise State	1.8		6.5		4.7		80		10-0		1.0
9	Virginia Tech	1.5		6.1		4.6		1		7-3		0.9
10	USC	1.5		6.4		4.9		10		7-3		0.8
11	Oklahoma	1.8		5.7		3.9		26		6-4		0.7
12	Nebraska	1.6		5.6		4.0		35		7-3		0.6
13	Penn State	1.8		6.1		4.3		81		9-2		0.6
14	Clemson	1.2		5.6		4.4		13		6-3		0.5
15	Ohio State	1.5		5.6		4.1		57		9-2		0.5
16	Texas Tech	1.6		6.3		4.7		40		6-4		0.4
17	Miami (Florida)	1.0		6.0		5.0		4		7-3		0.3
18	Georgia Tech	0.7		6.5		5.8		5		10-1		0.3
19	Mississippi	1.3		6.0		4.7		36		7-3		0.3
20	LSU	0.7		5.2		4.5		16		8-2		0.1
21	Oklahoma State	0.8		5.7		4.9		34		8-2		0.1
22	Utah	1.1		5.9		4.8		63		8-2		0.1
23	BYU	1.3		6.5		5.2		74		8-2		0.1
24	Stanford	0.8		6.7		5.9		21		7-3		0.0
25	Iowa	0.8		5.3		4.5		39		9-2		0.0
26	Auburn	1.0		6.2		5.2		23		7-4		-0.1
27	Arizona	0.9		6.0		5.1		30		6-3		-0.1
28	California	0.9		6.2		5.3		33		7-3		-0.1
29	Arkansas	1.0		7.0		6.0		15		6-4		-0.2
30	South Florida	1.0		5.9		4.9		56		6-3		-0.2
31	Georgia	0.7		5.8		5.1		7		6-4		-0.3
32	Tennessee	0.9		5.7		4.8		18		5-5		-0.3
33	Boston College	0.6		5.3		4.7		28		7-3		-0.3
34	West Virginia	0.9		6.0		5.1		44		7-3		-0.3
35	Wisconsin	0.7		5.7		5.0		65		8-2		-0.4
36	North Carolina	0.4		4.5		4.1		27		7-3		-0.5
37	Missouri	0.6		5.4		4.8		32		6-4		-0.5
38	Michigan State	1.2		6.2		5.0		64		6-5		-0.5
39	South Carolina	0.5		5.4		4.9		9		6-5		-0.6
40	Oregon State	0.3		5.8		5.5		22		7-3		-0.6
41	Nevada	1.1		7.5		6.4		90		7-3		-0.6
42	Central Michigan	0.8		5.8		5.0		100		8-2		-0.7
43	Rutgers	0.5		5.5		5.0		83		7-2		-0.8
44	Baylor	0.5		5.7		5.2		20		4-6		-1.0
45	Notre Dame	0.4		6.5		6.1		38		6-4		-1.0
46	Kansas	0.7		5.7		5.0		58		5-5		-1.0
47	Houston	0.4		6.8		6.4		78		8-2		-1.0
48	Arizona State	0.5		5.2		4.7		45		4-6		-1.0
49	Troy	0.6		6.2		5.6		92		7-3		-1.0
50	Idaho	0.8		6.9		6.1		91		7-4		-1.1
51	Southern Miss	0.8		6.0		5.2		99		6-4		-1.1
52	Mississippi State	0.2		5.5		5.3		12		4-6		-1.2
53	Connecticut	0.1		5.8		5.7		24		4-5		-1.2
54	N.C. State	0.7		5.9		5.2		55		4-6		-1.2
55	Fresno State	0.5		6.7		6.2		73		6-4		-1.2
56	Middle Tennessee	0.6		5.6		5.0		108		7-3		-1.2
57	Louisiana-Monroe	0.7		5.8		5.1		111		6-4		-1.3
58	Temple	0.2		5.1		4.9		112		8-2		-1.3
59	Texas A&M	0.1		5.8		5.7		43		5-5		-1.4
60	SMU	0.4		5.6		5.2		85		6-4		-1.4
61	Air Force	0.3		4.7		4.4		89		7-4		-1.4
62	Hawai'i	1.0		7.0		6.0		103		4-6		-1.4
63	Ohio	0.3		5.0		4.7		107		7-3		-1.4
64	Northern Illinois	0.5		5.8		5.3		123		7-3		-1.4
65	UCLA	-0.2		5.1		5.3		19		5-5		-1.5
66	Purdue	0.5		5.6		5.1		49		4-7		-1.5
67	Navy	-0.2		5.3		5.5		60		8-3		-1.5
68	Tulsa	0.8		6.0		5.2		102		4-6		-1.5
69	Florida State	-0.4		6.4		6.8		3		5-5		-1.6
70	Wake Forest	0.0		5.5		5.5		8		4-7		-1.6
71	Duke	0.1		5.1		5.0		59		5-5		-1.6
72	Kentucky	-0.3		5.1		5.4		46		6-4		-1.7
73	UCF	-0.1		5.0		5.1		71		6-4		-1.7
74	Kansas State	0.1		5.4		5.3		72		6-5		-1.7
75	Minnesota	-0.3		5.2		5.5		41		6-5		-1.8
76	East Carolina	-0.3		5.0		5.3		61		6-4		-1.8
77	UAB	0.2		6.6		6.4		84		5-5		-1.8
78	Kent State	0.3		5.2		4.9		114		5-5		-1.8
79	Toledo	0.4		6.2		5.8		96		4-6		-1.9
80	Michigan	0.2		5.9		5.7		86		5-6		-2.0
81	Buffalo	0.4		5.8		5.4		94		3-7		-2.0
82	Colorado State	-0.1		5.6		5.7		54		3-7		-2.1
83	Iowa State	-0.3		5.4		5.7		68		6-5		-2.1
84	San Diego State	0.1		5.3		5.2		93		4-6		-2.1
85	Virginia	-0.8		4.0		4.8		11		3-7		-2.3
86	Louisville	-0.6		5.3		5.9		51		4-6		-2.4
87	Illinois	-0.4		5.5		5.9		62		3-7		-2.5
88	Marshall	-0.7		5.0		5.7		67		5-5		-2.5
89	Northwestern	-0.6		4.8		5.4		95		7-4		-2.5
90	Louisiana Tech	-0.4		5.3		5.7		69		3-7		-2.6
91	Arkansas State	0.1		5.3		5.2		118		2-7		-2.6
92	Vanderbilt	-0.4		4.7		5.1		42		2-9		-2.7
93	Indiana	-0.4		5.4		5.8		77		4-7		-2.7
94	Utah State	-0.3		6.0		6.3		82		3-7		-2.7
95	Washington	-1.2		5.5		6.7		2		3-7		-2.8
96	Syracuse	-0.8		5.0		5.8		52		3-7		-2.8
97	Maryland	-0.9		4.7		5.6		25		2-8		-2.9
98	Bowling Green	-0.9		5.2		6.1		75		5-5		-2.9
99	UTEP	-0.4		5.8		6.2		98		3-7		-3.0
100	Army	-0.6		4.3		4.9		119		4-6		-3.0
101	Louisiana-Lafayette	-0.7		5.0		5.7		120		5-5		-3.0
102	Wyoming	-1.2		4.2		5.4		76		5-5		-3.1
103	North Texas	-0.1		5.9		6.0		116		2-8		-3.1
104	Akron	-0.4		4.7		5.1		105		2-8		-3.2
105	Colorado	-1.4		4.3		5.7		53		3-7		-3.4
106	Western Michigan	-1.0		5.2		6.2		110		5-6		-3.5
107	Miami (Ohio)	-0.9		4.8		5.7		66		1-10		-3.7
108	Memphis	-1.0		5.3		6.3		88		2-8		-3.7
109	Florida Atlantic	-1.2		5.9		7.1		101		3-6		-3.7
110	Tulane	-1.2		5.1		6.3		104		3-7		-3.8
111	Ball State	-0.8		4.8		5.6		117		1-9		-3.9
112	New Mexico	-1.0		4.6		5.6		87		0-10		-4.0
113	UNLV	-1.5		5.2		6.7		70		4-7		-4.1
114	San Jose State	-2.4		4.4		6.8		48		1-8		-4.7
115	Florida Int. FIU	-2.1		4.4		6.5		106		3-7		-4.8
116	New Mexico State	-2.3		3.7		6.0		113		3-7		-5.0
117	Washington State	-2.8		4.3		7.1		29		1-9		-5.2
118	Rice	-2.5		4.1		6.6		79		1-9		-5.3
119	Western Kentucky	-2.1		5.1		7.2		109		0-10		-5.5
120	Eastern Michigan	-2.8		4.3		7.1		97		0-10		-6.1

YPPSYS Pre-NAIA-Playoff Football Ratings of the Top 7 Ranked Teams

YPPSYS Pre-NAIA-Playoff Football Ratings of the Top 7 Ranked Teams
based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through November 14, 2009, Week 11 of regular season games.

YPPSYS Rank	TEAM	NAYPPA		YPP OFF		YPP DEF		Schedule		W-L		YPPSYS Rating
1	Sioux Falls Univ. SD	4.7		7.8		3.1		392		10-0		-1.1
2	Carroll College, Montana	1.9		6.4		4.5		381		10-0		-3.8
3	Lindenwood Univ. Mo.	4.5		8.8		4.3		540		10-0		-3.6
4	Morningside, Iowa	3.3		7.5		4.2		467		10-0		-3.7
5	St. Xavier, Illinois	3.0		6.7		3.7		463		11-0		-3.9
6	Ottowa Univ., Kansas	1.8		7.2		5.4		580		10-0		-7.0
7	Lambuth U. (Tenn.)	2.1		6.1		4.0		385		11-0		-3.6

One sees clearly that defending NAIA champion Sioux Falls this season stands head and shoulders above the other teams, although Carroll, Lindenwood, Morningside, St. Xavier and Lambuth are all almost dead even in terms of NAYPPA as adjusted for schedule difficulty. Ottowa Univiversity, Kansas, is hopelessly outclassed in these rankings and is over-ranked.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.

NAIA stats on the whole will mirror those in the NCAA. The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.

Schedule difficulty beyond Division I-A FBS does not show a linear decrease - it is more than that. Massey Ratings rank Sioux Falls 92nd in the country of all football teams. This would be approximately a rating of -2.8 in our rating system, so that, e.g. in the case of Sioux Falls, which according to Massey Ratings played the 392nd most difficult schedule, ca. TWICE that amount would have to subtracted from the NAYPPA to get a rating which fits into the Division I-A FBS rankings. But that would be too much in view of the fact that Sioux Falls beat FCS North Dakota 28-13 as compared to e.g. Division I-A Texas Tech which beat North Dakota 38-13. Hence, instead of 1/100 of schedule difficulty, we here deduct 1.5/100 from the NAYPPA.

College Football Game Predictions AND Results (as they come in) for Week 11 of the 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions AND Results for Week 11 of the 2009 Season
(the game results as they come in are simply appended to the previously posted predictions)

See our current football ratings and rankings in the previous post.

Predictions are based primarily on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings.

The odds we use as a reference for this week are based on those found at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Wednesday, November 11, 2009, 9:31:25 a.m.

The average home field advantage this year according to the Massey Ratings has thus far been 2.66 points, but the actual swing in score from field X to field Y is then twice that amount, i.e. 5.32 points. Moreover Massey covers all football divisions, not just Division I (FBS and FCS), for which Sagarin currently gives a home field advantage of 3.11 relative to a neutral field, or a spread of 6.22 between two home fields, so in some cases we now calculate 6 points for the home field in calculating the spread.

Tuesday November 10, 2009

The Ohio Bobcats (68) were favored by 1.5 points at the Buffalo Bulls (82) in a game matching teams coached by two former Huskers. Our YPPSYS ratings gave Ohio a rating of -1.4 and Buffalo a rating of -1.9 or a difference of (.5 x 9 =) 4.5 points in favor of Ohio, not counting any home field advantage. This game was played before we posted our predictions. Ohio won 27-24.

Wednesday November 11, 2009

The Toledo Rockets (77) were underdogs by 16 points at the Central Michigan Chippewas (41). Our YPPSYS ratings gave Central Michigan a rating of -0.7 and Toledo a rating of -1.7 or a difference of 9 points in favor of Central Michigan, not counting any home field advantage. Result: This game was played before we posted our predictions. Central Michigan won 56-28.

Thursday November 12, 2009

The Ball State Cardinals (113) are underdogs by 17 points at the Northern Illinois Huskies (69). YPPSYS rates Ball State at -3.9 and Northern Illinois at -1.4 or a difference of 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 points plus the home field advantage. Our call: We call it 49-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result: Northern Illinois won 26-20. Prediction record this week: 1-0 in predicting the winner and 0-1 against the betting spread (line, odds).

The Bowling Green Falcons (98) are favored by 3.5 points at the Miami (OH) RedHawks (106). YPPSYS rates the Falcons -2.8 and Miami -3.4, or a difference of .6 x 9 = 5.4 points.
Our call: We call it 27-23 for the Falcons. Result: Bowling Green won 35-14. Prediction record this week: 2-0 in predicting the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

The South Florida Bulls (rank 26, rating 0.2) are seen as even at the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (rank 46, rating -0.9). Our call: The YPPSYS ratings would make the Bulls 10-point favorites minus the Rutgers home field advantage. However, Rutgers plays well late in the season and has beaten South Florida 3 times in a row, where past performances seemed unreliable for prediction when these two teams meet. Plus, we have a graduate of Rutgers in the family. We call it 30-28 for the Scarlet Knights. Result: Rutgers shut down the Bulls spectacularly 31-0, allowing only 7 first downs and 159 yards total offense. 7 sacks! Prediction record this week: 3-0 in predicting the winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Friday November 13, 2009

The West Virginia Mountaineers (25, 0.2) are underdogs by 8.5 points at the Cincinnati Bearcats (2, 2.3) . YPPSYS favors the Bearcats by 2.3-0.2 = 2.1 x 9 = 19 points plus the home field advantage. Our call: The Bearcat offense is simply superb and now they have two QBs who run it well. We call it 49-24 for Cincinnati. Result: Cincinnati struggled because of numerous mistakes, but outgained the Mountaineers 7.5 to 5.5. yards per play in winning 24-21, as injured senior QB came off the bench twice to throw 2 touchdown passes in 4 throws. A final two-minute drive for a score by West Virginia points to defensive issues for the Bearcats, who should have won easily, but still showed too many weaknesses. Prediction record this week: 4-0 in predicting the winner and 2-2 against the spread.

The Temple Owls (63, -1.3) are favored by 4.5 points at the Akron Zips (103, -3.0). The amazing 7-2 bowl-eligible Owls of Al Golden already have the season in the sack as far as success is concerned, and whatever comes now is just gravy. Our call: We call it 23-14 for Temple.Result: After trailing 17-14 at the end of the first quarter, Temple took command, outscoring the Zips 21-0 in the 2nd quarter and won going away 56-17. Prediction record this week: 5-0 in predicting the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

Saturday November 14, 2009

The Houston Cougars (44, -0.8) are favored by 4.5 points at the UCF Knights (79, -1.8). Our call: Houston 37-34 over Central Florida Result: UCF won 37-32. Prediction record this week: 5-1 in predicting the winner and 4-2 against the spread.

The Syracuse Orange (91, -2.5) are underdogs by 7 points at the Louisville Cardinals (85, -2.2). Our call: Syracuse is always good for a surprise, so you have to be careful. Louisville 27-24 Result: Louisville won 10-9. Prediction record this week: 6-1 in predicting the winner and 5-2 against the spread.

The Tennessee Volunteers (16, 0.4) are underdogs by 5 points at the Mississippi Rebels (27, 0.1) . Our call: The Vols have been getting better each game and should have beaten Alabama two weeks ago. We call it for Tennessee 24-21 Result: Mississippi won 42-17 as Dexter McCluster ran for 287 yards and 4 TDs, also catching 4 passes for 38 yards. Prediction record this week: 6-2 in predicting the winner and 5-3 against the spread.

The Indiana Hoosiers (92, - 2.5) are underdogs by 25 points at the Penn State Nittany Lions (10, 0.9). Our call: After their loss to the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions will power forward. Penn State 44-7 Result: Penn State struggled in winning 31-20. Prediction record this week: 7-2 in predicting the winner and 5-4 against the spread.

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits (7-2, FCS) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (75, -1.7). Our call: Look out for these good teams from the FCS, but 35-24 for Minnesota Result: Minnesota was lucky to win 16-13. Prediction record this week: 8-2 in predicting the winner and 5-4 against the spread.

The Michigan State Spartans (38, -0.5) are favored by 3 points at the Purdue Boilermakers (55, -1.2). Our call: We have not figured out yet, what makes these two inconsistent teams tick. We call it for the home team Purdue 31-30 Result: The Spartans won 40-37. Prediction record this week: 8-3 in predicting the winner and 5-4-1 against the spread.

The Northwestern Wildcats (90, -2.4) are underdogs by 5.5 points at the Illinois Fighting Illini (86, -2.2). Our call: After their win over Iowa, there will be a letdown. After all, they even lost to helpless Syracuse. Illinois 31-24 Result: Northwestern won 21-16. Prediction record this week: 8-4 in predicting the winner and 5-5-1 against the spread.

The Michigan Wolverines (76, -1.7) are underdogs by 7.5 points at the Wisconsin Badgers (36, -0.4). Our call: 31-14 for Wisconsin. We do not think that football head coach Rich Rodriguez will be successful at Michigan, coming from West Virginia. Stanford University made the same mistake in bringing Walt Harris from Pittsburgh and failed at trying to introduce a football culture not suited for the Cardinal. Michigan and Stanford have completely different student bodies than schools like Pittsburgh or West Virginia and certain types of coaches are simply not going to make it work at those schools, given their natural recruitment. Result: Wisconsin won 45-24. Prediction record this week: 9-4 in predicting the winner and 6-5-1 against the spread.

The Texas Longhorns (5, 2.0) are favored by 23.5 points at the Baylor Bears (45, -0.9). Our call: Everyone talks about Colt McCoy but it is the defense that is the heart of this Longhorn team, leading the nation in allowing a mere 3.5 yards per play. That is national championship quality - and they have a good offense to boot. Baylor is underrated. We call it 41-21 for Texas. Result: Texas powered to a 40-0 lead and won 47-14. Prediction record this week: 10-4 in predicting the winner and 6-6-1 against the spread.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (30, -0.2) are favored by 13 points at the Duke Blue Devils (72, -1.5). Our call: Georgia Tech is substantially overrated in the polls because of its excellent offense, which we are fans of by the way, but their defense is one of the worst in the nation on a yards per play basis, and a good offensive team with a good defense will beat them, as their loss to the Miami Hurricanes shows. Duke is surely not that kind of team, but they ought to put up a good battle. We call it 30-24 for the Yellow Jackets. Result: Duke went ahead 10-0 and then fell asleep, losing 49-10. Prediction record this week: 11-4 in predicting the winner and 6-7-1 against the spread.

The Clemson Tigers (19, 0.3) are favorites by 9 points at the North Carolina State Wolfpack (53, -1.1). Our call: The Wolfpack are always dangerous this time of year. Clemson 24-17 Result: Clemson won 43-23. Prediction record this week: 12-4 in predicting the winner and 6-8-1 against the spread.

The Florida State Seminoles (73, -1.6) are underdogs by 6 points at the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (64, -1.4). Our call: It is an almost even game except for the home field advantage of Wake Forest. We call it for the Demon Deacons 41-34 Result: Florida State won 41-28. Prediction record this week: 12-5 in predicting the winner and 6-9-1 against the spread.

The Kentucky Wildcats (70, -1.5) are favored by 3 points at the Vanderbilt Commodores (94, -2.6). Our call: 21-17 for Kentucky Result: Kentucky beat Vandy 24-13. Prediction record this week: 13-5 in predicting the winner and 7-9-1 against the spread.

The Missouri Tigers (40, -0.6) are favored by 1 point at the Kansas State Wildcats (71, -1.5) Our call: This is an interesting spread now because Kansas State was favored by 2.5 points in the opening line. YPPSYS favors Missouri by 8 points, minus the Wildcat home field advantage. However, ever since giving up 21 points in the first quarter against Oklahoma, the Wildcats have played better than their opponents and we doubt if Missouri can beat them at home, where they are 5-0. We call it 27-23 for Kansas State. Result: Missouri beat Kansas State 38-12. Prediction record this week: 13-6 in predicting the winner and 7-10-1 against the spread.

The Western Michigan Broncos (107, -3.4) are favored by 12.5 points at the winless 0-9 Eastern Michigan Eagles (120, -5.8). Our call: Western Michigan 38-24 Result: Western Michigan won 35-14. Prediction record this week: 14-6 in predicting the winner and 8-10-1 against the spread.

The UAB Blazers (78, -1.8) are favored by 1 point at the Memphis Tigers (109, -3.5). Our call: UAB 40-31 Result: UAB won 31-21. Prediction record this week: 15-6 in predicting the winner and 9-10-1 against the spread.

The Virginia Tech Hokies (12, 0.7) are favored by 18 points at the Maryland Terrapins (97, -2.7). Our call: 31-7 for Virginia Tech Result: The Hokies won 36-9. Prediction record this week: 16-6 in predicting the winner and 10-10-1 against the spread

The Brigham Young Cougars (28, 0.0) are favored by 27 points at the winless 0-9 New Mexico Lobos (112, -3.8). Our call: BYU 35-7 Result: BYU won 24-19. Prediction record this week: 17-6 in predicting the winner and 10-11-1 against the spread

The Colorado Buffaloes (105, -3.3) are underdogs by 5.5 points at the Iowa State Cyclones (84, -2.0). Our call: Look out. Hawkins is finally playing a quarterback not his son so that Colorado might once again a force to be reckoned with, having beaten Texas A&M last week 35-34. The Aggies beat the Cyclones 35-10. We call it 24-23 for the Buffaloes. Result: Iowa State won 17-10. Prediction record this week: 17-7 in predicting the winner and 10-12-1 against the spread

The San Jose State Spartans (114, -4.4) are underdogs by 13 points at the Utah State Aggies (95, -2.6). Our call: 41-20 for the Aggies Result: Utah State won 24-9 Prediction record this week: 18-7 in predicting the winner and 11-12-1 against the spread

The UTEP Miners (99, -2.8) are underdogs by 9 points at the Southern Methodist Mustangs (60, -1.3). Our call: SMU 48-28 Result: SMU won 35-31 Prediction record this week: 19-7 in predicting the winner and 11-13-1 against the spread

The Idaho Vandals (51, -1.0) are underdogs by 31.5 points at the Boise State Broncos (7, 1.3). Our call: Boise State 38-17 Result: The Broncos won 63-25. Prediction record this week: 20-7 in predicting the winner and 11-14-1 against the spread

The Tulane Green Wave (108, -3.5) is an underdog by 2.5 points at the winless 0-9 Rice Owls (118, -5.1). Our call: Tulane 28-20 Result: Rice left the ranks of the winless, winning 28-20. Prediction record this week: 20-8 in predicting the winner and 11-15-1 against the spread

The Stanford Cardinal (29, -0.1) is an underdog by 10.5 points at the USC Trojans (6, 1.3). Our call: Stanford had a mighty win against Oregon last week at home but are unlikely to top USC on the road. USC has won 47 of its last 48 home games - and that one loss was the Stanford upset 24-23 in 2007 in a game in which Stanford was a 41-point underdog. A game for the ages. As a Stanford alum, we will be rooting for this Cardinal team, which became bowl eligible with last week's win. Stanford may just have the country's best running back in Toby Gerhart and the best quarterback to be, freshman Andrew Luck, so they have a chance to win this game. We call it 31-28 for Stanford, who would normally be underdogs via our own stats by about 20 points. Everyone in that stadium is going to be wondering at the start of this game whether Stanford can reproduce its win of 2007. It could. It could. Result: Unbelievable. Stanford won 55-21. Prediction record this week: 21-8 in predicting the winner and 12-15-1 against the spread

The Washington Huskies (93, -2.6) are underdogs by 12.5 points at the Oregon State Beavers (39, -0.6). Our call: 38-14 for Oregon State Result: Oregon State won 48-21 Prediction record this week: 22-8 in predicting the winner and 13-15-1 against the spread

The Miami (FL) Hurricanes (13, 0.5) are favored by 3 points at the North Carolina Tar Heels (37, -0.5). Our call: The Tar Heels have the defense. Miami has the offense. Usually the defense wins. We call it 28-27 for the Tar Heels. Result: North Carolina won 33-24 Prediction record this week: 23-8 in predicting the winner and 14-15-1 against the spread

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (14, 0.5) are underdogs by 3.5 points at the Kansas Jayhawks (43, -0.8). Update: there was an error somewhere as the College Football Prediction Tracker just prior to the game shows the Huskers as 4-point favorites. Our call: The Huskers are 2nd in the nation behind Florida in scoring defense and ahead of TCU which has played a comparable schedule according to Massey. That 6-3 Nebraska, which lost stupidly to Virginia Tech and Iowa State in games which they clearly dominated, could defeat Oklahoma 10-3 last week, not allowing the mighty Sooners a single TD, and still be kept out of the poll rankings shows that there is something very wrong with the poll ranking system, which is currently skewed very much in favor of the South and East. That the Nebraska offense needs to be revamped is clear, but the defense is very good, and improving weekly. Nearly every team out there would be worried about playing the current Huskers, and all will be worried when NU gets its offensive coordination straightened out. We call it for Nebraska 17-10. If the offense gets going, it could be much more definite than that. Result: The Huskers won 31-17 Prediction record this week: 24-8 in predicting the winner and 15-15-1 against the spread

The Iowa Hawkeyes (23, 0.2) are underdogs by 16 points at Ohio State Buckeyes (11, 0.8). Our call: In spite of an injury-plagued Hawkeye team, we think that any line against this Hawkeye team over one TD is potentially risky. Iowa has not lost a game by more than 1 TD since the year 2007, so why should they now? We call it 24-17 for Ohio State. Result:The Buckeyes won 27-24 in overtime Prediction record this week: 25-8 in predicting the winner and 16-15-1 against the spread

The Boston College Eagles (31, -0.2) are favored by 4 points at the Virginia Cavaliers (74, -1.6). Our call: Boston College 27-20 Result: Boston College won 14-10 Prediction record this week: 26-8 in predicting the winner and 16-15-2 against the spread

The Florida Gators (1, 2.4) are favored by 16 points at the South Carolina Gamecocks (34, -0.3). Our call: Florida 31-13 Result: Florida won 24-14 Prediction record this week: 27-8 in predicting the winner and 16-16-2 against the spread

The winless 0-9 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (119, -5.3) are underdogs by 21.5 points at the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (56, -1.2). Our call: The Warhawks 49-6 Result: The Warhawks won 21-18. The Hilltoppers nearly got their win and are to be applauded for the effort. Prediction record this week: 28-8 in predicting the winner and 16-17-2 against the spread


The Arkansas State Red Wolves (88, -2.3) are favored by 3.5 points at the Florida Atlantic Owls (111, -3.7). Our call: 31-24 for the Red Wolves Result: The Owls won 35-18.
Prediction record this week: 28-9 in predicting the winner and 16-18-2 against the spread

The Fresno State Bulldogs (48, -1.0) are underdogs by 7.5 points at the Nevada Wolf Pack (49, -1.0). Our call: 48-42 for the Wolf Pack Result: Nevada won 52-14 Prediction record this week: 29-9 in predicting the winner and 16-19-2 against the spread

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (100, -2.8) are underdogs by 12 points at the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (57, -1.2). Our call: 37-17 for the Blue Raiders Result: MIddle Tennessee won 34-17 Prediction record this week: 30-9 in predicting the winner and 17-19-2 against the spread

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (58, -1.2) are favored by 3 points at the Marshall Thundering Herd (89, -2.4). Our call: Southern Miss 33-28 Result: Southern Miss won 27-20 Prediction record this week: 31-9 in predicting the winner and 18-19-2 against the spread

The UCLA Bruins (59, -1.3) are favored by 17 points at the Washington State Cougars (116, -4.9). Our call: UCLA 34-7 Result: UCLA won 43-7 Prediction record this week: 32-9 in predicting the winner and 19-19-2 against the spread

The UNLV Rebels (110, -3.7) are underdogs by 17 points at the Air Force Falcons (61, -1.3). Our call: Air Force 42-14 Result: Air Force won 45-17 Prediction record this week: 33-9 in predicting the winner and 20-19-2 against the spread

The North Texas Mean Green (102, -2.9) are underdogs by 2.5 points at the FIU Golden Panthers (115, -4.7). Our call: North Texas 31-21 Result: Florida International won 35-28 Prediction record this week: 33-10 in predicting the winner and 20-20-2 against the spread

The Texas A&M Aggies (66, -1.4) are underdogs by 20.5 points at the Oklahoma Sooners (20, 0.3). Our call: Oklahoma 31-10 Result: Oklahoma won 65-10 Prediction record this week: 34-10 in predicting the winner and 21-20-2 against the spread

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (96, -2.6) are underdogs by 24.5 points at the LSU Tigers (21, 0.2). Our call: LSU 41-10 Result: LSU won 24-16 Prediction record this week: 35-10 in predicting the winner and 21-21-2 against the spread

The Arizona Wildcats (17, 0.4) are underdogs by 1.5 points at the California Golden Bears (35, -0.3). Our call: The opening line favored Arizona by 2. It looks like a cliffhanger. We call it for Arizona 27-26 Result: Cal won 24-16 Prediction record this week: 35-11 in predicting the winner and 21-22-2 against the spread

The Auburn Tigers (22, 0.2) are underdogs by 5 points at the Georgia Bulldogs (32, -0.3). Our call: On paper it looks like a near draw, but we go with Auburn for the superior offense, 31-28 Result: Georgia won 31-24 Prediction record this week: 35-12 in predicting the winner and 21-23-2 against the spread

The Alabama Crimson Tide (3, 2.1) is favored by 12 points at the Mississippi State Bulldogs (52, -1.1). Our call: Alabama 30-7 Result: Alabama won 31-3 Prediction record this week: 36-12 in predicting the winner and 22-23-2 against the spread

The Utah Utes (18, 0.4) are underdogs by 20 points at the TCU Horned Frogs (4, 2.1). Our call: If we give 6 points for the home field advantage, this would give the game to TCU by 21 points according to the YPPSYS stats, but we can not see this game as being anything other than much closer. Utah is not the Utah of last year, but they lost by only 7 to Oregon, which beat USC by 27, so the strength of the Utes is surely greater than their stats. We call it 24-21 for TCU Result: I should have stuck with the stats as TCU beat Utah 55-28 Prediction record this week: 37-12 in predicting the winner and 22-24-2 against the spread

The Troy Trojans (50, -1.0) are underdogs by 14 points at the Arkansas Razorbacks (33, -0.3). Our call: The stats would give the Razorbacks an edge by about 12 points but at home the Razorbacks are strong. We call it 44-24 for Arkansas. Result: Arkansas won 56-20 Prediction record this week: 38-12 in predicting the winner and 23-24-2 against the spread

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (15, 0.5) are underdogs by 4 points at the Oklahoma State Cowboys (24, 0.2) . Our call: On paper this game is a tossup. We call it 31-30 for Texas Tech because of the poor Cowboy pass defense. Result: Oklahoma State won 24-17 Prediction record this week: 38-13 in predicting the winner and 23-25-2 against the spread

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (42, -0.8) are underdogs by 7 points at the Pittsburgh Panthers (9, 0.9). Our call: We call it for Pittsburgh, 37-28. If the Notre Dame defense were on the same level as the Irish offense, this team might be a national title contender, but alas, the defense stinks, allowing 6.1 yards per play, which is miserable. Result: Pittsburgh won 27-22 Prediction record this week: 39-13 in predicting the winner and 23-26-2 against the spread

The Wyoming Cowboys (104, -3.1) at the San Diego State Aztecs (81, -1.9). Our call: San Diego State is favored by 7.5 points although the opening line was only 1 point. We call it 34-17 for the Aztecs. A win will put the Aztecs, 2-10 last year, in a position to become bowl eligible by beating UNLV in their final game to close out Brady Hoke's first head coaching season. They are unlikely to beat Utah in their next-to-last game. San Diego State is the only Mountain West Conference team not ever to go a bowl game in previous seasons. Result: Wyoming won 30-27 as the Cowboys put up 24 unanswered 4th quarter points and the Aztecs choke with Hoke Prediction record this week: 39-14 in predicting the winner and 23-27-2 against the spread

The New Mexico State Aggies (117, -4.9) are underdogs by 20.5 points at the Hawaii Warriors (62, -1.3). Our call: Hawaii 51-13 Result: Hawaii won 24-6 Prediction record this week: 40-14 in predicting the winner and 23-28-2 against the spread

The Arizona State Sun Devils (47, -1.0) are underdogs by 17.5 points at the Oregon Ducks (8, 1.1). Our call: Oregon 41-16 Result: Oregon won 44-21 Prediction record this week: 41-14 in predicting the winner and 24-28-2 against the spread

Sunday November 15, 2009

The East Carolina Pirates (80, -1.9) are underdogs by 5 points at the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (67, -1.4). Our call: Tulsa 34-24 Result:

For the season, after eleven weeks, we are thus far 433-173 W-L in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no official line, but we remain under .500 with a 250-278-8 record against the spread, the first year ever that we are not beating the spread on the whole.

NCAA Division II College Football Playoffs 2009 - Game Predictions and Results (as they come in) for November 14, 2009

November 14th, 2009 Division II Playoff Games

Schedule difficulty rank (SchD) according to the Massey Ratings
YPPSYS ratings rely on NAYPPA - Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage (offense vs. defense), with adjustments made for schedule difficulty and several other parameters.

1/100 ot the SchD is subtracted from the NAYPPA, .2 for each loss is also subtracted from the NAYPPA,
and .1 is subtracted from the NAYPPA for defenses which allow 5.0 more yards per play, .2 if 6.0 or more and .3 if 7.0 or more.
Each point of YPPSYS rating difference equals 9 points on the scoreboard.

The Division II Playoff Bracket is found at d2football.com.

Here are our predictions for the November 14, 2009 playoff games:

Super Region 1 (Plays against SR4 In the Semifinals)

West Liberty Hilltoppers, West Virginia(10-1) - seeded 1st, drew a bye
7.2 yards per play on offense, 5.6 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.6
SchD = 338, YPPSYS rating = -2.1
Shippensburg Raiders, Pennsylvania (9-2) - seeded 2nd, drew a bye
5.6 yards per play on offense, 5.3 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.3
SchD= 322, YPPSYS rating = -3.4

Fayetteville State Broncos, North Carolina (8-3) - seeded 6th
4.9 yards per play on offense, 4.0 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.9
SchD = 374, YPPSYS rating = -3.4
at
California University Falcons, Pennsylvania (8-3) - seeded 3rd
6.2 yards per play on offense, 4.5 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.7
SchD = 298, YPPSYS rating = -1.9
Our Call: We call if for the Falcons 41-21. Result: The Falcons won 42-13.
We are 1-0 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Edinboro Fighting Scots, Pennsylvania (8-3) - seeded 5th
5.5 yards per play on offense, 5.1 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.4
SchD = 319, YPPSYS rating = -3.5
at
East Stroudsburg Warriors, (8-3) - seeded 4th
6.0 yards per play on offense, 5.4 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.6
SchD = 324, YPPSYS rating = -3.3
Our Call: We call if for the Warriors 31-23. Result: The Fighting Scots won 31-16.
We are 1-1 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Super Region 4 (Plays against SR1 in the Semifinals)

Central Washington Wildcats, Washington (11-0) - seeded 1st, drew a bye
5.0 yards per play on offense, 4.1 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.9
SchD = 207, YPPSYS rating = -1.2
Northwest Missouri Bearcats, Missouri (10-1) - seeded 2nd, drew a bye
6.8 yards per play on offense, 4.4 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 2.2
SchD = 186, YPPSYS rating = +0.1

(Those two teams are currently also the two top-ranked teams in the country in Division 2 football. Central Washington has lived from its defense, but its offense is probably not good enough to survive the regionals. Northwest Missouri has made it to the finals in Division II the last 4 years, losing each time, but should be in the finals again this year.)

Tarleton State Texans, Texas (9-2) - seeded 5th
6.0 yards per play on offense, 4.5 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.5
SchD = 270, YPPSYS rating = -1.6
at
Texas A&M-Kingsville Javelinas, Texas (9-2) - seeded 4th
website down today, no stats available
SchD = 260
Our Call: Kingsville won at home against the Texans in the regular season 34-20 as Tarleton lost 3 fumbles and had 3 passes interecepted. That will not happen again. We call it 30-27 for Tarleton. Result: Because of my predictions on the Division II playoff football games, I happened to tune in to KSTV Radio covering the Tarleton State vs. Texas A&M-Kingsville game because all other Division II playoff games were finished. I tuned in just in time to hear a superbly announced game in which Tarleton's Garrett Lindholm kicked a 64-yard field goal to tie the game in regulation as time expired. Tarleton then proceeded to win in two overtimes 57-56. A once in a lifetime experience - wild. Great job of announcing. Well done!
We are 2-1 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Abilene Christian Wildcats, Texas (8-3) - seeded 6th
5.3 yards per play on offense, 4,3 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.0
SchD = 240, YPPSYS rating = -2.0
at
Midwestern State Mustangs, Texas (9-2) - seeded 3rd
6.6 yards per play on offense, 4.5 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 2.1
SchD = 274, YPPSYS rating = -1.0
Our Call: It is rare that two college football teams play each other on successive Saturdays, but that is what is happening at Wichita Falls. Abilene Christian began the season with a 19-14 win over Northwest Missouri, but faded at season's end, losing to West Texas A&M, Tarleton and last week to Midwestern State, 15-13, who they now play again in the playoffs. We call it for the Mustangs 27-14. Result: Abilene Christian won 24-21.
We are 2-2 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Super Region 2 (Plays against SR3 in the Semifinals)

North Alabama Lions, Alabama (10-1) - seeded 1st, drew a bye
6.0 yards per play on offense, 3.9 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 2.1
SchD = 267, YPPSYS rating = -0.8
Carson-Newman Eagles, Tennessee (9-2) - seeded 2nd, drew a bye (unfinished website stats)
6.6 yards per play on offense, 5.3 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.3 (stats only through October 11)
SchD = 262, YPPSYS rating = -1.8
Schools that do not take the time to keep their athletic pages on their websites polished and up to date are unlikely to be winners on the football field. We do not expect Carson-Newman to survive the regionals.

West Alabama Tigers, Alabama (7-4) - seeded 6th
6.0 yards per play on offense, 4.9 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.1
SchD = 269, YPPSYS rating = -2.4
at
Albany State Golden Rams, Georgia (8-2) - seeded 3rd
no stats available at the incomplete school athletic pages
Our Call: Schools that do not take the time to keep their athletic pages on their websites polished and up to date are unlikely to be winners on the football field. We do not expect Albany State to survive the regionals. West Alabama 31 Albany State 10. Result: West Alabama won 24-22.
We are 3-2 in calling the Division II playoff games.

UNC Pembroke Braves, North Carolina (9-1) - seeded 5th
6.0 yards per play on offense, 4.4 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.6
SchD = 346, YPPSYS rating = -2.1
at
Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys, Arkansas (8-2) - seeded 4th
6.4 yards per play on offense, 5.6 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.8
SchD = 282, YPPSYS rating = -2.5
Our Call: Arkansas Tech 27-24. Result: The Wonder Boys won 41-13.
We are 4-2 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Super Region 3 (Plays against SR2 in the Semifinals)

Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs, Minnesota (10-1) - seeded 1st, drew a bye
6.7 yards per play on offense, 4.2 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 2.5
SchD = 241, YPPSYS rating = -0.1
Grand Valley State Lakers, Michigan (10-1) - seeded 2nd, drew a bye
7.0 yards per play on offense, 5.1 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.9
SchD = 211, YPPSYS rating = -0.5
Duluth is the defending Division II national champion

Hillsdale Chargers, Michigan (9-2) - seeded 6th
6.1 yards per play on offense, 5.3 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 0.8
SchD = 233, YPPSYS rating = -2.0
at
Minnesota State Mankato Mavericks, Minnesota (10-1) - seeded 3rd
5.9 yards per play on offense, 4.6 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.3
SchD = 252, YPPSYS rating = -1.4
Our Call: 28-21 for the Mavericks. Result: The Chargers won 27-24 in overtime.
We are 4-3 in calling the Division II playoff games.

Saginaw Valley Cardinals, Michigan (9-2) - seeded 5th
5.7 yards per play on offense, 4.7 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 1.0
(website statistics incomplete, stats updated only to October 17)
SchD = 226, YPPSYS rating = -1.7
at
Nebraska-Kearney, Nebraska (10-1) - seeded 4th
6.7 yards per play on offense, 4.5 yards per play on defense, NAYPPA = 2.2
SchD = 311, YPPSYS rating = -1.1
Our Call: Schools that do not take the time to keep their athletic pages on their websites polished and up to date are unlikely to be winners on the football field. We do not expect Saginaw Valley to survive the regionals. We call it for Nebraska-Kearney 32-21. Result: Nebraska-Kearney won 35-20.
We are 5-3 in calling the Division II playoff games.